Will Egypt Get Involved In the November 2012 Israeli-Hamas Conflict?

Okay so, I guess it's not news to anyone now that Hamas has been busy reloading, whereas some at the United Nations thought that perhaps a peaceful period was finally shedding light on the region. In mid-October of 2012 a rocket and missile factory was destroyed in Sudan. It turns out that in November of 2012 the same types of rockets and missiles which were shot into Israel by Hamas, as those weapons reappeared again on the international scene. This means Iran is also involved.

Is it possible that this small conflict could escalate into something much larger? Sure, especially if cooler heads do not prevail. At the same time the United States has discussed how large a force they might need to go in and get the chemical weapons that are in Syria. Someone estimated 75,000 troops. Okay so, let's step back and look at the bigger picture, starting with information we already know which has been in the news.

NBC News had an interesting feature on November 16, 2012 which was also posted at Reuters titled; " Israel authorizes more reservists after rockets target cities," which stated; " Israel's cabinet authorized the mobilization of up to 75,000 reservists late on Friday, preparing the ground for a possible Gaza invasion after Palestinians fired a barrage of rockets into Israel," and the article/TV news story went on to add that Egypt's new President Morsi said that Egypt would support Gaza against Israeli aggression.

Okay, but; what Egypt's Morsi does and says are two different things, remember he's trying to lead as a populist, but doesn't completely have control of will of the people, he hopes to gather full support over time but that might be difficult. The military in Egypt does not fully trust him yet, if he oversteps his bounds Morsi will become a political casualty (or worse) of this conflict. Inciting the masses would be a mistake on his part, and he'd certainly lose US support, and our President certainly doesn't have a mandate here to get away with taking sides with Morsi.

In the end Egypt's leadership will do best if it talks big but does nothing, then enjoys a diplomatic place at the table to return to temporary peace along that border area. Hamas is in a no-win situation now, and Iran is in a better place because Hamas is serving its will against Israel, and the Muslim population is riled up, and could be bound together in a common cause against Israel. If Israel takes troops into Gaza Egypt may be forced to play its hand out or its leadership could lose faith amongst is most staunch supporters.

Either way, this doesn't look good for anyone who wants peace in the Middle East, but then again those that believe that's actually possible perhaps don't live in the real world, rather some future utopian fantasy land. It's just not going to happen, and certainly not this year or the next. Please consider all this and think on it.

Indian Foreign Policy: An Overview

India has established formal diplomatic relations with most of the countries of the world. India is the second most populous country of the world, the most populous democracy and one of the fastest growing economies. Over the past several years, India has emerged as a regional power, taking slow strides towards being a potential superpower. Hence, the country's growing international influence has given it a prominent voice in various global affairs.

The Indian foreign policy has greatly evolved after it achieved independence. The country's moral authority and prestige were eponymous in all along the 1950s. This facilitated in acquiring development assistance from both East and the West. The prestige that the country acquired emanated from its non-aligned stand.

In the 1960s and the 1970s, the Indian foreign policy was much directed to get assistance from the Soviet Union. This, however, became a major eyesore of the West and India was somewhat alienated from the global community because of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. During the late 1980s, New Delhi improved its foreign relations with Washington and other developed nations out of the Soviet Bloc. Much of the core foreign relations issues were directed at forging closer ties with the South Asian neighbours, especially Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh.

In the 1990s India had to reanalyze its foreign policy following the end of Cold War and the collapse of the USSR. Previous policies were proved inadequate and India was distraught with several international and domestic problems. Following the disintegration of the USSR, the Indian foreign policy witnessed a paradigm shift. New Delhi bolstered its respective relations with Canada, Germany, France and Japan, in a bid to strengthen its position among the international community. India formally established its relations with Israel that grew in the later years.

Entering the new millennium, New Delhi has been urging reforms in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the UN. India's contention for a permanent UN Security Council seat is being backed by various countries like the UK, Germany, Japan, France, Australia, Russian, UAE, Brazil and others. Washington, in 2004, signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with New Delhi even though the latter wasn't a member of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. Washington argued that New Delhi's strong record in nuclear non-proliferation made India an exception. This, however, has not been able to persuade members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to ink identical deals with India. US President Barack Obama, during a visit in November 2010, announced that his country would support India's candidature for the permanent UN Security Council membership as also its entry to the NSG, Australia Group, Wassenaar Agreement, and the Missile Technology Control Regime.

Israel Advances Into Gaza and Oil Prices Are Rising

This afternoon Israel attacked a key member of the Hamas led government in Gaza. Soon, afterwards Oil prices went up and will continue to rise in the near future as Israel moves into Gaza. Israel killed the letter of Hamas military wing whose name is Ahmed al-Jabari. After more than 115 rockets and missiles have been fired into Israel in the last few days, the Israeli government is ready to act.

Soon after news of the attack on Hamas was announced we saw Oil prices rise as much as 1.4 percent. "The Israeli strike on Gaza has raised the security premium," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based energy hedge fund. "The Israelis made it clear that this may be the first of many strikes. This episode raises tension in an already troubled region."

Even though so far on the year Oil prices have dropped 13 percent we can expect that in the wake of Israel defending itself that oil prices will rise. "This is a clear statement that we won't continue to tolerate this violence against us," Israeli vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom said. Israel is prepared for an escalation in attacks from Gaza in response, Shalom said. The Israeli army said it called up reserves in advance of any possible infantry assault.

Countries in the Middle East and parts of North Africa account for 36 percent of the world's oil production. These countries also hold 52 percent of the world's oil reserve. "Prices surged on the initial shock that Israel killed the Hamas leader," said Phil Flynn, from Price Futures Group. "Now the market is retreating from the day's highs as cooler heads prevail. Tension between Israel and Hamas is ongoing, not something new."

Oil had been on the decline on the day and had fallen as much as.5 percent before the air strike. Prices of oil had slipped because the US Labor Department had reported a.2 percent decline in producer price index. This was the first drop we have seen since October.

Tomorrow the Energy Department will report that U.S. crude Stockpiles rose 2.65 million barrels last week. While it will also show supplies of gasoline, diesel and heating oil all declined in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. The Energy Department will release the data tomorrow at 11 a.m. in Washington DC, a day later than usual because of Veteran's day which was on the 12th of November.

If you can get into a trade on Oil between 86-87 dollars for the end of the week, it would be wise to take a call.

Is The United States Fiscal Cliff Enough to Nudge China Over A Political One?

Well, we just went through a rather ugly presidential election. Over $2 billion were spent on campaign advertisements; most of them attack ads on one another. They were nasty, purporting half-truths, and totally attempting to degrade the personal character of the other candidate. There was nothing pleasurable about it, it wasn't pretty, but that's how we do American politics now. We should be ashamed of ourselves, and it seems as if politics is no way to run our great nation. Nevertheless, that's the way it is, but today I would like to talk to you about a different subject, not US politics, but the politics of China.

You see China is busy choosing its new leaders as well, and in the meantime they are having quite a bit of social unrest. There have been many protests over pollution issues, working conditions, food prices, and inflation. There is also a bit of class warfare going on, and somewhat corrupt politics. Yes, China is known for its brutal politics in the Communist Party, but these days things are getting into the media much more often, even with all the Internet censorship going on behind 'The Great Firewall'.

You may not realize this but what we do here the United States will very much affect the leadership in China and what happens from here on out over there. When China's economy is doing good and growing, more of the population is happy because they have income flow and jobs. They see things happening, and they see their lives getting better, as they have more money. They are able to save more, perhaps get a car, and move up in rank at their job while improving their quality of life and standard of living.

However, China's economy has been hurt due to the economic challenges in Europe, so China's exports to the EU have slowed drastically. Now China is relying on exporting more products to the United States so they can expand the number of jobs they have, and continue growing their own economy. However, if we go back into a recession in 2013, China may have already painted themselves into an economic corner, and they won't have the wherewithal to keep their economy going and growing. Will the county economically collapse or politically implode with massive civil unrest?

On November 7, 2012 there was an article in the Wall Street Journal titled; "China Gazes Over Fiscal Cliff in US," by Tom Orlik. Interestingly enough, China actually has more to lose by the US Fiscal Cliff than we do. After all, if we stop spending and go into subsequent quarters of negative GDP growth, sure it will hurt here, but we will have also perhaps gotten our fiscal house in order. China on the other hand will find themselves in a real tough spot as we stop buying many of the products produced there.

This is very problematic for China right now as they go through some "change management" issues in their Communist Party with perhaps more turbulent times ahead politically. Couple that with greater unemployment, slowed growth, inflation pressures, etc. and it could be enough to bring on some major significant changes that China doesn't necessarily want right now.

Note: Please see the article; "Hu Sets China Income Target for Xi as Communists Gather," in Bloomberg News, along with the accompanying video for a little more insight.

Indeed, suffice it to say that we are all globally connected now, this is one giant economy, and any time any of the major trading partners are affected, it affects the whole world. What we do in the United States and how we move forward will affect the future of politics in China, which will then affect us as well. You see that point yet? I hope you will please consider all this and think on it.

The Man Who Prevented the Next World War

Stanislav Petrov is perhaps a name that doesn't mean almost nothing for the most of us. And still, it is the name of a man who avoided a Third World War, a nuclear war that could have lead slowly to the end of the earth we inhabit.

On 26 September 1983, in moments of big tension between the United States and the Soviet Union, Stanislav Petrov was the commander of a short notice secret bunker, Serpukov 15. This bunker was one of the Strategic Rocket Force bases and was situated near Moscow.

The Soviet - American relations were getting worse. Only three weeks before, the Soviet Military Aviation destroyed a South Korean aircraft, aboard which there was an important American official, the congressman Larry McDonald.

The Serpukov 15 bunker made part of an early satellite based warning system, used for the tracking of ballistic intercontinental rockets via SUA - the so called Oko warning system, of which the Kremlin leaders were very proud.

Petrov`s responsibilities consisted in the observation of the warning network through satellite and the immediate notification of his superiors about the inevitability of any nuclear attack over the Soviet Union. If the warnings were to be intercepted by the warning system, the strategy of the Soviets consisted in an immediate nuclear counterattack with all available rockets. This scenario was adopted by both parties and specified in the Commune Doctrine of Mutual Destruction, in the hope of mutual intimidation.

Shortly after nightfall, the computers from the bunker detected an intercontinental rocket attack, launched over the Soviet Union by the United States. The system was informing about five rockets, which were heading with speed towards the URSS. Instead of alerting the command center, which would have lead to a change of nuclear attacks from both sides, Petrov has decided to trust his own judgment. He believed that the warning was a false alarm. The human factor and the wish for peace of a normal human being turned out to be stronger than the political and military ideologies, with which the Kremlin used to wash the brains of its secret agents.

Petrov`s judgment turned out to be right. The system had a major malfunction. It was a false alarm. What was interpreted by the system as missiles was actually an optic phenomenon - the unusual reflection of the sunlight on clouds of high altitude.

Many months of surveys, questionings and researches followed for Stanislav Petrov.

His superiors praised him initially for his saving gesture, but he did not receive a prize or a public appreciation. On the contrary, he was quickly laid to rest and retired silently after a short period of time. This event was a particularly embarrassing one for the Kremlin leaders. Their damaged warning system exposed their vulnerability.