Sunday, September 30, 2012

Is Jordan Going to Be the Next Government to Fall In the Spring of 2013?

After reading several CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) papers and a couple of RAND Corporation reports it is obvious to me that the Arab Spring was not merely caused by people getting together on social networks. There was a populist undercurrent of anger, despair, and helplessness and the protestors merely used the social networks for tools to promote their political agendas.

People took to the streets because they were angry at the economic situation, the rising food prices, and overall inflation. They demanded that their various governments do something to take care of these problems, but those governments couldn't.

The people in those areas also felt as if their voice was not being heard and that democracy was being stolen from them, also they were quite upset with the rising of wheat prices and food scarcity, this is what triggered those revolutions. It has often been said that a stable society is really only three meals away from total meltdown and chaos. Hungry humans will do just about anything to get food, just as wild animals do. Well, the Arab Spring touched many nations and harnessed those animal instincts, and there were Days of Rage (riots and protests) in some 10 different countries. Many governments moved very quickly to appease the masses, but it was too much for other leaders.

Well, we're coming up on another spring season, and as the weather gets better people will once again take to the streets, there seems to be quite a bit of turbulence and chaos and Jordan right now. Is this a sign of things to come? It certainly could be, and one has to ask, what is the next nation to fall in the region?

Strafor Global Intelligence had noted in an article on November 19, 2012 "The Gaza Conflict Reverberates in the West Bank and Jordan," and spoke of the growing angst amongst the masses there, explaining how the Muslim Brotherhood seemed to be behind much of the commotion causing larger protests than were seen in the previous Arab Spring which took down the governments of Egypt and Tunisia.

Just two days the prior the Wall Street Journal also reported on civil and economic unrest "Jordanianas Call for End of Monarchy - A Regime Long Sheltered from Arab Spring Sees Economic Discontent Feed New Demand for Revolution" by Bull Spindle and Suha Philip Ma'ayeh.

Is it possible that Jordan could also fall to the Muslim Brotherhood? Anything is possible, we already saw that when Egypt fell very quickly. A lot has happened in the last few years, and we might expect that some of this will continue for the next three or four more years. The interesting thing is we don't know what the outcome will be, or if this will end well. Nevertheless, I hope you will please consider all this and think on it.

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