Sunday, August 26, 2012

Will Egypt Get Involved In the November 2012 Israeli-Hamas Conflict?

Okay so, I guess it's not news to anyone now that Hamas has been busy reloading, whereas some at the United Nations thought that perhaps a peaceful period was finally shedding light on the region. In mid-October of 2012 a rocket and missile factory was destroyed in Sudan. It turns out that in November of 2012 the same types of rockets and missiles which were shot into Israel by Hamas, as those weapons reappeared again on the international scene. This means Iran is also involved.

Is it possible that this small conflict could escalate into something much larger? Sure, especially if cooler heads do not prevail. At the same time the United States has discussed how large a force they might need to go in and get the chemical weapons that are in Syria. Someone estimated 75,000 troops. Okay so, let's step back and look at the bigger picture, starting with information we already know which has been in the news.

NBC News had an interesting feature on November 16, 2012 which was also posted at Reuters titled; " Israel authorizes more reservists after rockets target cities," which stated; " Israel's cabinet authorized the mobilization of up to 75,000 reservists late on Friday, preparing the ground for a possible Gaza invasion after Palestinians fired a barrage of rockets into Israel," and the article/TV news story went on to add that Egypt's new President Morsi said that Egypt would support Gaza against Israeli aggression.

Okay, but; what Egypt's Morsi does and says are two different things, remember he's trying to lead as a populist, but doesn't completely have control of will of the people, he hopes to gather full support over time but that might be difficult. The military in Egypt does not fully trust him yet, if he oversteps his bounds Morsi will become a political casualty (or worse) of this conflict. Inciting the masses would be a mistake on his part, and he'd certainly lose US support, and our President certainly doesn't have a mandate here to get away with taking sides with Morsi.

In the end Egypt's leadership will do best if it talks big but does nothing, then enjoys a diplomatic place at the table to return to temporary peace along that border area. Hamas is in a no-win situation now, and Iran is in a better place because Hamas is serving its will against Israel, and the Muslim population is riled up, and could be bound together in a common cause against Israel. If Israel takes troops into Gaza Egypt may be forced to play its hand out or its leadership could lose faith amongst is most staunch supporters.

Either way, this doesn't look good for anyone who wants peace in the Middle East, but then again those that believe that's actually possible perhaps don't live in the real world, rather some future utopian fantasy land. It's just not going to happen, and certainly not this year or the next. Please consider all this and think on it.

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